Thursday Night Football Betting: Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns for Thursday Night Football faceoffs, then welcome to our Week 16 rundown of our favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for the New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet and BetRivers.
Note: Odds change regularly, check your local online sportsbook for the latest
TNF Anytime TD Scorer Predictions | Week 16
Here’s the set-up for this game, as we assess probabilities for certain players scoring. The Jets almost control their playoff destiny. If they win their final three contests, they’ll go 10-7 and automatically leapfrog the Dolphins based on the head-to-head tiebreaker. And a New England Patriots loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Fins, or Buffalo Bills would catapult New York into the postseason.
But winning tonight is key because a loss would leave them with a steep hill to climb.
Meanwhile, as bizarre as it sounds, Jacksonville completely controls its playoff destiny. They’re one game behind the NFC-South-leading Tennessee Titans, and they’ll get the Titans at home on Week 18 with a chance to sweep the season series. If the Jags win these final three games, they’ll win their division, period.
And if they lose? Well, the Titans are also facing the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys at home. Two Tennessee wins would presumably knock the Jags out of postseason contention, as a Wild Card berth would seem nearly impossible.
As a result, if the Jets or Jaguars take a sizable lead into halftime, I would expect the other squad to play more aggressively in a desperate attempt to catch up. This could lead to (a) big plays on offense, and/or (b) big plays on defense. Not unlike a soccer match where one team goes up 2-0, the trailing team must take more risks. That can lead to much more scoring on both sides.
Zonovan Knight (+138) — BetMGM
I don’t love the odds, but I do like the player and matchup. Zonovan Knight was an active scorer near the goal line in college. He hasn’t been fully unleashed the pros. In a must-win game, and facing a sub-par defense yielding one rushing score per game, Knight offers solid odds to hit paydirt.
One thing to note about Knight: he’s averaging a robust 3.2 yards per carry before contact, but a mere 1.1 yards per carry after contact. The former stat is a credit to him for finding the holes and to his offensive line for creating those holes, and it also reflects his high TD potential near the end zone. The latter stat is a reminder that he’s an undrafted rookie still in the early stages of professional development.
Corey Davis (+310) — BetMGM
Corey Davis has by far the most favorable anytime-TD odds among the Jets’ three top wideouts. We could take some deep fliers like Braxton Berrios (+600, DraftKings) or Denzel Mims (+600, Caesars).
But I prefer the higher-upside Davis, who has 11 touchdowns across 33 games these past three seasons (33%) and enough close calls to give him well above 33% odds of scoring tonight.
Tyler Conklin (+500) — Caesars
Don’t sleep on Tyler Conklin. He’s commanded a 70%+ offensive snap share in each of his last eight games and has three red-zone scores. In fact, he’s tied for No. 2 on the Jets in red-zone targets, earning 15.5% of all such looks. If the Jets score at least three times (entirely doable), Conklin should have better than 50/50 odds of snagging at least one touchdown.
Trevor Lawrence (+550) — PointsBet
Why not? Trevor Lawrence is hitting his stride as a long-term elite or near-elite QB. Much depends on how the Jags develop in the next couple of years — particularly in maintaining a top-10 backfield and proficient receiving corps.
In the meantime, facing a tough New York secondary that’s also fierce against the run, Lawrence might run one in himself. The Jets have given up only eight RB scores, which is among the league’s lowest total. But they’ve yielded the third most QB-rushing TDs (five).
Zach Wilson (+550) — BetRivers
Consider the stakes for Zach Wilson. If he helps lead the Jets to a win tonight and a postseason berth, he’ll almost certainly be the Week 1 starter next season. If he flounders, we shouldn’t be surprised if he’s finished in New York.
Wilson’s competitive advantage over Mike White is his mobility. Wilson’s five rushing TDs in his brief career underscore his versatility in the pocket, including near the end zone. Jacksonville has given up the fifth most QB rushing yards. There’s a clear path for Wilson to run one in.
Dan Arnold (+2200) — Caesars
A Hail Mary, and one worth attempting given the betting line. Dan Arnold continues to toil in obscurity behind the high-flying Evan Engram. He’s tied for seventh on the team in red-zone targets. Last year he was tied for third.
There’s nothing safe here. The bet assumes Jacksonville employs their primary backup TE near the goal line — someone who’s averaged a roughly 15% target share this season. Not reliable, but also not the nearly impossible longshot his +2200 odds suggest.