The Betting Lines And Storylines Behind Super Bowl LV
You couldn’t have asked for a better main storyline for Super Bowl LV. The quarterback matchup at Raymond James Stadium this coming Sunday is one for the ages. In one corner you have man who has been called the comeback king, California Cool, Tom Terrific and simply the GOAT – Tom Brady. In the other corner you have the defending champion and reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes is a man seemingly with one foot already in the Hall of Fame at the age of 25. In normal circumstances the Texas Tech alum would be the center of attention this coming Sunday. That would be the case if it were not for the ageless Brady.
At 43 years young, Brady is showing few signs of slowing down. When talking of his career you need to set aside some time. In his 19 full seasons (he only played 1 game in 2000 in his rookie year and also missed 2009 season due to knee surgery) he has won 17 AFC East Championships, 9 AFC Championships and is appearing in his 10th Superbowl having already won 6.
Brady has reached the Super Bowl in 10 of his 19 full seasons in the NFL
Think about it like this: if you played on a team with Tom Brady for his entire career, each year you were more likely than not to play in a Super Bowl. Not bad for a quarterback who went 199th in the 2000 NFL Draft.
While Brady has had an unquestionably illustrious career, Mahomes also looks destined for greatness. In his three full seasons leading the Chiefs (he only played 1 game in 2017 after being drafted 10th) he won a Super Bowl in Year Two and now aims to guide the Chiefs to their second title in a row in Year Three. In his first full season under center he led them to the AFC Championship game only to lose to, you guessed it, Brady and the Patriots.
What else did Brady do that year? You guessed right again; he collected another NFL title.
The Kansas City Chiefs will go into Sunday’s game as 3 point favorites across the sportsbooks. Few would argue this is unfair considering the Chiefs had the better of the Bucs in week 12 winning 27-24. Interestingly, although the scoreline did finish narrowly in Kansas City’s favor the Bucs nearly overcame two 17 point deficits. They had trailed 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and 27-10 at the end of the 3rd.
Kansas City is a 3 point favorite across the sportsbooks
Tampa Bay probably won’t mind the fact the Chiefs are favored. This will be their third consecutive playoff game starting as underdogs. They previously toppled both Drew Brees and his New Orleans Saints and 2020 likely-MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
With online gambling now legal in so many states you could say this is the first Super Bowl where betting has gone mainstream. So where will the smart money be going?
While the 3 point spread (William Hill, PointsBet and others) seems fair, 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by 4 points or more. In other words, don’t necessarily expect a close game.
Another bet of interest is the Super Bowl MVP. In 30 of the 54 editions to date, the quarterback has won the honor. In the 6 Super Bowl games Brady has won, he has received the MVP on 4 occasions. Last year in Mahomes’ first SB he took home the award. At present Mahomes is ~2.0 to win the MVP on BetMGM and Brady is 3.0.
New era – widespread legal online sports betting means this Super Bowl will be the most bet-on event in history
Overall, the odds that the MVP will be one of the quarterbacks is 1.30 on PointsBet. With two of the best in the business in action there is a high probability whoever lifts the Vince Lombardi trophy this coming Sunday will also take the MVP crown.
There is an almost unlimited number of prop bets around a game of this magnitude – from the coin toss to the possible color of Patrick Mahomes’ headband. Let’s take a quick look at some of the bets on offer:
Sample of Proposition Bets available:
- Each team’s first TD scorer (William Hill)
- Team with last possession (PointsBet)
- Who makes the first reception (William Hill)
- Which team has most turnovers (BetMGM)
- Brady longest completion (DraftKings)
- Mahomes longest completion (DraftKings)
- First team to 10 points (William Hill)
- Which team gets the most first downs (PointsBet)
- Highest scoring half (PointsBet)
- First team to 10/20 points (BetMGM)
- Non-QB to pass for a TD (PointsBet)
This is just a small taste of what is available at the sportsbooks during this special week for American sports fans.